Tunisian Revolution - Who's Next?

An uprising in the North African country of Tunisia has toppled the autocratic government and no doubt has other Arab strongmen very nervous. The suicide that apparently sparked the revolution has inspired imitators in other Muslim countries with large populations of young people, high unemployment, and harsh repression of freedoms and civil rights. These places are no doubt powder kegs awaiting a spark. How could it be otherwise? Take a population generally skewed to under age 30 demographics with limited job opportunities, limited hope, limited freedoms. Now add in brutal repression and deep resentment that must be ever present as they compare their lives with more fortunate citizens of other countries as seen through various media such as internet, movies, and television. Then watch the brutal strongmen and their corrupt regimes cynically manipulate or violently supress the forces of radical Islamic fundamentalism as another tool to maintain their precarious grip on power. Now comes some seemingly random event to fan the simmering rage into the fires of revolution.

At first glance it might seem a good thing when a brutal regime is swept from power. But sometimes they are replaced by something as bad or worse. Without some internal rudder steering a course toward a benevolent democratic government there is the danger that one master will simply be replaced by another. Consider Iran in the 70s when the Shah was forced to flee the country as revolutionary forces with students full of Islamic fervor took over. Now those idealistic young students who drove a tyrant from power are middle aged theocrats with their collective foot firmly on the necks of the current generation of young people yearning to be free. Consider Iraq after America invaded and deposed the thuggish Saddam Hussein. Iraq had been a check on the regional ambitions of Iran and had fought a horrific 8 year war with them during the 80s that killed some 500,000 on both sides. With Saddam gone the majority Iraqi Shiites may grow much closer to the majority Shiites of Iran. That might be good for the Shiites of both countries but perhaps critically destabilizing for the region and quite damaging to American interests.

Countries such as Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have funded or supported the forces of radical Islamic fundamentalism with both immediate and potential future consequences for world peace. Saudi Arabian support for the fundamentalist Wahhabism led to Saudi fanatics flying planes into the Twin Towers. Pakistani support for the Taliban led to their ascension to power in Afghanistan where they provided sanctuary for Al Qaeda to plan attacks and provide support for the fanatics. All religious fundamentalism is dangerous and detrimental but none so much as Islamic fundamentalism. Samuel P. Huntington was an American political scientist who wrote an influential article titled Clash of Civilizations that has been quoted as essentially noting that Islam has bloody borders from perpetual conflict. They do not play well with others. Perhaps there is a cultural derangement from deep immersion in religious fundamentalism. Perhaps their lives are so bad they want to speed the transition to the next life. Whatever the rationale, the well being of millions depends on reason winning the day against the forces of fundamentalism.