A religious belief or claim about supernatural events is by definition unprovable (unless specific predictions are made that will manifest itself in the natural world) since we live in a universe governed by natural laws that are understood with a considerable amount of precision that continues to be refined to ever greater precision. Those laws are never found to be violated. If they were we would have to throw them out because they wouldn't be very useful. Religious beliefs don't have to meet any standards. But those who hold them act like they are sacred and indeed tend to get very agitated if they are questioned. Why should that be? I recently read an article from MSNBC's Cosmic Log, a major science web site, that reported on events after the end of the world did not happen as predicted. The article said it was important not to make fun of anyone's religious beliefs. My first thought was, why not? Why shouldn't anyone making supernatural claims about extremely unlikely events be met with some eye-rolling? In any other area except religion they would be.
Harold Camping, the would-be prophet, was "flabbergasted" that the world didn't end on May 21st and now says it will happen October 21st.
Never Give Up

Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Friday, May 20, 2011
May 21, 2011: The Beginning Of The End?
I first heard about evangelist Harold Camping's prediction that the Bible foretold the world would end tomorrow back in January, was duly amused, and did a short blog. I knew he had followers who believed (isn't that always the case?) but I didn't know just how many. At his Family Radio ministry headquarters they are in shutdown mode in preparation for the end of the world this weekend and some of their (thousands? millions?) of followers have quit their jobs and/or made other life-altering decisions. A New York Times article says some "working-class people have reportedly liquidated their bank accounts to support Family Radio's campaign". So how will it unfold? Saturday the 21st will be the Rapture, where the relatively few "righteous" will rise up to heaven, leaving the roughly 7 billion rest of us to suffer and die during 5 months of hell on earth.
An enterprising atheist entrepreneur came up with a brilliant idea (I'm simply devastated that I didn't think of this myself!) of offering the pet-loving righteous to come pick up their furry little darlings - for a fee, of course - when their owners ascend into the heavens on clouds of glory. He apparently carefully vetted his nationwide group of atheist employees by ensuring they did the proper blaspheming so they wouldn't accidentally be Raptured along with the owners and leave little Fluffy or Sparky without anyone to care for them.
Harold Camping had predicted the end of the world in September 1994. He now says he forgot to take the Book of Jeremiah into account and is now certain, without doubt, no plan B, that it will happen on May 21st, 2011. It shows how deeply irrational we are and how easily led astray that the end of the world has been predicted with some regularity for thousands of years and still people believe. I think the Seventh Day Adventist religion had its beginnings in waiting for the end of the world that was supposed to happen October 22, 1844. It is now one of the fastest growing religions organizations in the country.
Some who doubt that Camping's predicted apocalypse will occur are planning Rapture parties and generally making fun of his faithful followers. They, and I, will be greatly and unpleasantly surprised if it actually does happen. I used to think the odds of this predicted event actually happening were so close to zero that it could be safely dismissed. Then my favorite rationalist / skeptic, Sam Harris, happened to mention that if philosopher Nick Bostrum's computer simulation model indeed described our perceived reality and it happened that Mormons or some such group were the ones running the simulation on hard drives of the future then it was indeed possible that I might see Jesus coming to deliver my just punishments for the sins of rational thinking and insistence on evidence for beliefs. I wouldn't mind discovering that I was actually just living in a computer simulation but, please god, not that one!
An enterprising atheist entrepreneur came up with a brilliant idea (I'm simply devastated that I didn't think of this myself!) of offering the pet-loving righteous to come pick up their furry little darlings - for a fee, of course - when their owners ascend into the heavens on clouds of glory. He apparently carefully vetted his nationwide group of atheist employees by ensuring they did the proper blaspheming so they wouldn't accidentally be Raptured along with the owners and leave little Fluffy or Sparky without anyone to care for them.
Harold Camping had predicted the end of the world in September 1994. He now says he forgot to take the Book of Jeremiah into account and is now certain, without doubt, no plan B, that it will happen on May 21st, 2011. It shows how deeply irrational we are and how easily led astray that the end of the world has been predicted with some regularity for thousands of years and still people believe. I think the Seventh Day Adventist religion had its beginnings in waiting for the end of the world that was supposed to happen October 22, 1844. It is now one of the fastest growing religions organizations in the country.
Some who doubt that Camping's predicted apocalypse will occur are planning Rapture parties and generally making fun of his faithful followers. They, and I, will be greatly and unpleasantly surprised if it actually does happen. I used to think the odds of this predicted event actually happening were so close to zero that it could be safely dismissed. Then my favorite rationalist / skeptic, Sam Harris, happened to mention that if philosopher Nick Bostrum's computer simulation model indeed described our perceived reality and it happened that Mormons or some such group were the ones running the simulation on hard drives of the future then it was indeed possible that I might see Jesus coming to deliver my just punishments for the sins of rational thinking and insistence on evidence for beliefs. I wouldn't mind discovering that I was actually just living in a computer simulation but, please god, not that one!
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Drugging Old Folks
A recent New York Times article said nearly one in seven elderly nursing home residents - nearly all with dementia - are given powerful antipsychotics from the class known as "atypical antipsychotics" even though they increase the risk of death and are not approved for such treatments, according to a government audit. It's bad enough the drugs are dangerous and of dubious value (except for keeping residents drugged into a quiescent state) but they are also generally quite expensive and taxpayers are picking up the tab for much of the cost through government programs such as Medicare.
I have long been alarmed at the epidemic of medication overprescribing in the general public and completely disgusted at the phenomenon in the elderly nursing home population. I have seen this for years during my rotations as a pharmacy student and again as the pharmacy director of a hospital with a large nursing home attached.
There are several reasons for the excessive use of prescription drugs in this country and plenty of blame to spread up and down the chain. It starts with the patient / healthcare consumer who should inform themselves about their health issues and best practices and limitations of treatments. People are also often likely to have unrealistic expectations about the treatment of their complaints and tend to believe there is a pill to fix nearly anything wrong with them. Many would rather take a drug than make lifestyle changes that would often be much more effective than any drug available. Physicians have a central role as the healthcare provider perceived as the most knowledgeable about healthcare issues. They are also the ones best able to shape the public perception of how and when health care should be sought. Pharmacists and nurses are accessible and can provide valuable information.
Unrealistic expectations and lack of basic knowledge of reasonable and effective treatments of medical conditions leaves patients vulnerable to bad decision-making and has enormous consequences on health outcomes and costs us much more money than we can afford to spend. Especially now in a recession and high unemployment.
Unfortunately, I don't see a way out. There is too much money at stake and the people and institutions who make that money have too much power to change things easily. Most importantly, it starts with patients / consumers. If they don't make the effort to learn enough to be able make informed decisions about healthcare treatments they won't be motivated to demand better and we'll keep getting the same old highly expensive, second-rate, often unnecessary healthcare we been getting.
I have long been alarmed at the epidemic of medication overprescribing in the general public and completely disgusted at the phenomenon in the elderly nursing home population. I have seen this for years during my rotations as a pharmacy student and again as the pharmacy director of a hospital with a large nursing home attached.
There are several reasons for the excessive use of prescription drugs in this country and plenty of blame to spread up and down the chain. It starts with the patient / healthcare consumer who should inform themselves about their health issues and best practices and limitations of treatments. People are also often likely to have unrealistic expectations about the treatment of their complaints and tend to believe there is a pill to fix nearly anything wrong with them. Many would rather take a drug than make lifestyle changes that would often be much more effective than any drug available. Physicians have a central role as the healthcare provider perceived as the most knowledgeable about healthcare issues. They are also the ones best able to shape the public perception of how and when health care should be sought. Pharmacists and nurses are accessible and can provide valuable information.
Unrealistic expectations and lack of basic knowledge of reasonable and effective treatments of medical conditions leaves patients vulnerable to bad decision-making and has enormous consequences on health outcomes and costs us much more money than we can afford to spend. Especially now in a recession and high unemployment.
Unfortunately, I don't see a way out. There is too much money at stake and the people and institutions who make that money have too much power to change things easily. Most importantly, it starts with patients / consumers. If they don't make the effort to learn enough to be able make informed decisions about healthcare treatments they won't be motivated to demand better and we'll keep getting the same old highly expensive, second-rate, often unnecessary healthcare we been getting.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
On The Death Of Osama bin Laden
The death of Osama bin Laden certainly made a splash on the world stage. It's usually best to let big news ferment for a time to better capture its essence. Inevitably, more information becomes available that can add illumination or even shift some perceptions. But big events such as this exert a powerful gravitational pull almost too great to resist.
I noted with amusement the press statement gymnastics several Republicans went through during requisite commendations to President Obama. You could feel their pain at having to say "commend" and "President Obama" in the same sentence. Nearly all made sure to give George Bush equal billing with Obama. The Palestinian militant group Hamas condemned "the assassination and the killing of an Arab holy warrior. We ask God to offer him mercy with the true believers and the martyers".
I have little sympathy for bin Laden or any other "true believer" who dies violently after living violently. Surely the world is a little safer without a fanatic of his stature around to inspire the hordes of fanatics who share his warped visions of worldwide puritanical Islamic rule brought about through the killing of infidels who refuse to embrace Islam. Having said all that, the cheering, sign-carrying, flag-waving jubilation was a bit much. Not a good example for the young ones to show such righteous glee at death. That puts us much too close to the way the culture that produced bin Laden would react to the death of a perceived enemy. While it may be appropriate to express a somber satisfaction that he has been removed like the cancer on society he was, focusing on his role in bringing down the Twin Towers and killing some 3000 Americans reduces the joy at his death to merely getting even. The focus should be the damage done to global society from fundamentalism and fanaticism and how those ideas hurt us all so badly.
I noted with amusement the press statement gymnastics several Republicans went through during requisite commendations to President Obama. You could feel their pain at having to say "commend" and "President Obama" in the same sentence. Nearly all made sure to give George Bush equal billing with Obama. The Palestinian militant group Hamas condemned "the assassination and the killing of an Arab holy warrior. We ask God to offer him mercy with the true believers and the martyers".
I have little sympathy for bin Laden or any other "true believer" who dies violently after living violently. Surely the world is a little safer without a fanatic of his stature around to inspire the hordes of fanatics who share his warped visions of worldwide puritanical Islamic rule brought about through the killing of infidels who refuse to embrace Islam. Having said all that, the cheering, sign-carrying, flag-waving jubilation was a bit much. Not a good example for the young ones to show such righteous glee at death. That puts us much too close to the way the culture that produced bin Laden would react to the death of a perceived enemy. While it may be appropriate to express a somber satisfaction that he has been removed like the cancer on society he was, focusing on his role in bringing down the Twin Towers and killing some 3000 Americans reduces the joy at his death to merely getting even. The focus should be the damage done to global society from fundamentalism and fanaticism and how those ideas hurt us all so badly.
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